Senator Thom Tillis endorsed Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair after the DOJ closed its probe into Jerome Powell. Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 is now at 93% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The jump traces directly to Tillis’s vote on the Senate Banking Committee. His support was contingent on the DOJ dropping its investigation, and that condition is now met. The May 1 market remains at 1.7% YES, showing traders doubt confirmation can happen that fast. The June 30 market sits at 96.4% YES, meaning traders broadly expect Warsh to be confirmed eventually.
The May 15 market has $17,756 in daily USDC volume, with $1,590 needed to move the price five points. The largest single move was a 20-point spike, likely triggered by Tillis’s announcement.
Why it matters
Tillis was the main procedural obstacle on the Banking Committee. With his opposition removed, the confirmation path is clear. At 93¢ per YES share, traders get a 1.07x payout if Warsh is confirmed by May 15. The narrow spread between the May 15 and June 30 markets (93% vs. 96.4%) suggests most of the remaining uncertainty is about timing, not outcome.
What to watch
Statements from other Banking Committee members or a full Senate floor scheduling notice would be the next catalysts. A Trump endorsement on Truth Social or visible bipartisan support could push the May 15 market even higher.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 1.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 93% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 96.4% | — | — | Trade → |
