Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve Chair nomination moves to a Senate Banking Committee vote on Wednesday. His confirmation by May 1 sits at 2% YES, while May 15 is at 66.0%.
The May 1 market stays low, meaning traders don’t expect a full Senate vote within the next week. The May 15 market jumped from 29% to 77% in the last 24 hours on $17,756 in USDC trading volume. The June 30 market is at 95%.
Volume is concentrated on the mid-May resolution. The May 15 market saw the largest price move, a 20-point spike. It takes $1,590 to move the price 5 points there, which points to institutional positioning rather than retail speculation.
The committee vote is a concrete step forward for Warsh, who was previously confirmed unanimously as a Fed governor. The main obstacle is Senator Thom Tillis’s opposition, tied to the DOJ investigation into Jerome Powell. If Tillis drops his block, May 15 confirmation odds could climb higher. Buying YES at 2¢ pays $1 if confirmed by May 1, a 50x return, but that requires Tillis to stand down and the committee to move without delay.
Watch for statements from Tillis on the DOJ probe, any resolution of that investigation, and shifts in Democratic opposition, particularly from Senator Elizabeth Warren. Any of these could change the confirmation timeline.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 1.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 66% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 94.4% | — | — | Trade → |