## Market Snapshot
Jerome Powell’s exit from his role as Fed Chair by May 14 is currently priced at 0.7% YES, while the likelihood of Kevin Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 is at 97% YES. Recent developments have slightly influenced these odds, suggesting a shift in market sentiment.
## Key Takeaways
– The Senate’s advancement of Kevin Warsh’s nomination appears to increase the likelihood of his confirmation as Fed Chair. – Jerome Powell’s departure by mid-May appears less likely, but the market is consistent with him leaving by the end of June. – The progression of Warsh’s nomination suggests strong momentum in favor of a leadership transition at the Federal Reserve.
## Article Body
The U.S. Senate has advanced Kevin Warsh’s nomination to become the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, a position currently held by Jerome Powell. President Donald Trump nominated Warsh in January 2026 to replace Powell, whose term ends on May 15, 2026. Despite some opposition from Republican senators due to an ongoing DOJ investigation related to Fed headquarters renovations, the Senate Banking Committee’s decision to advance Warsh’s nomination to a full Senate vote indicates significant progress toward his confirmation. Powell plans to remain on the Federal Reserve Board until 2028, but recent developments suggest a prompt transition in leadership.
## Market Interpretation
The advancement of Kevin Warsh’s nomination is consistent with a YES outcome for his confirmation by May 15, reflecting a high impact on the market. The likelihood of Jerome Powell stepping down by May 14 appears low, as indicated by the market’s current pricing. However, his exit by the end of June remains highly probable, reflecting moderate market impact due to the impending leadership change.
## What to Watch
Watch for the full Senate’s scheduling of a confirmation vote for Kevin Warsh, which could further influence market prices. Key factors include any procedural delays or political developments that might affect the timeline. Additionally, statements from Jerome Powell regarding his departure plans or any updates on the DOJ investigation into Fed renovations could impact market sentiment.
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Jerome Powell Out As Fed Chair| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | 0.7% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 99.3% | — | — | View market → |
| June 30 | 99.6% | — | — | View market → |
| May 15 | 26.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 97.2% | — | — | View market → |
| June 30 | 99.6% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 99.8% | — | — | View market → |
| May 15 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| May 15 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| May 15 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| May 15 | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
