Scam messages offering false safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz have been reported. The UK warship deployment market sits at 8.5% YES, down slightly from 9% yesterday.
The UK warship market has weak volume at $47 in actual USDC traded and is thin enough that $708 would move it 5 points. The scam messages haven’t prompted any concrete UK action, keeping odds low.
The 80 ships transiting the strait by April 30 market is at 26% YES, up from 26% yesterday, with $21,157 in actual USDC traded. The largest recent move was a 6-point spike.
The scams are more noise than signal without official actions or statements backing them up. A YES share in the UK warship market at 8.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, an 11.76x return. That bet only makes sense if you believe UK intervention is imminent.
Watch for official statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or NATO allies. Confirmation of military movements would be the clearest signal for these markets.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 26.5% | — | — | Trade → |
