Bulgaria’s snap election is days away, with Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition leading in polls. The odds of Radev becoming the next prime minister sit at 94.0% YES, up from 74% a week ago.
Market reaction
Radev’s coalition is polling between 21-33%, ahead of GERB’s 18-20%. The Polymarket contract reflects this gap, with traders pricing Radev well above GERB’s Boyko Borisov and other challengers following Bulgaria’s Eurozone entry.
Why it matters
The 16.8 percentage point rise over the past week points to a growing consensus that Radev can form a stable government. The market’s depth requires $6,170 to shift the odds by 5 points, showing real liquidity behind the position. A 9-point drop at 10:05 AM corrected quickly, consistent with an isolated event rather than a trend reversal.
What to watch
At 94.0¢, a YES share pays $1 if Radev assumes office. The bet depends on the coalition holding its polling lead and avoiding last-minute scandals. Final polling data and coalition-building signals are the next catalysts. Delyan Peevski or Boyko Borisov could still shift the outcome if they secure unexpected alliances.
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