Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Iran of using the Strait of Hormuz as an “economic nuclear weapon,” escalating tensions in the region. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief by April sits at 3% YES, down from 14% a day ago.
Rubio’s comments signal a hardline U.S. stance, and markets have moved accordingly. The market predicting Trump will lift the Hormuz blockade by May 31 is at 58.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday. The odds for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 ticked up slightly to 0.8% YES.
Collapsed shipping traffic in the Strait has traders skeptical about Trump agreeing to any Iranian demands. The sanction relief market is thin, with only $1,944 in daily USDC volume. The price can swing 5 points with just $119. The Hormuz blockade market is much thicker, requiring $8,975 to move 5 points, which suggests stronger conviction there.
Rubio’s statement reads as a strategic escalation, suggesting sanctions relief is off the table. Traders betting on sanction relief at 3¢ could see a 33.3x return, but the likelihood is slim unless U.S. policy shifts.
Watch for new U.S. sanctions or additional tolling measures by Iran. Also watch Trump’s Truth Social posts, which have moved these markets before.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 2.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 58.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
