## Market Snapshot
The market for “Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?” is currently priced at 99% YES, reflecting recent developments. The market for a June 30 departure is priced at 86.7% YES. Both markets show increased confidence in Bolojan’s departure following the no-confidence vote.
## Key Takeaways
– The removal of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan aligns with a 99% YES pricing for his departure by year-end, suggesting markets view this as virtually resolved. – Romania’s political instability and the collapse of the pro-European government appear consistent with pricing supportive of a YES outcome for a June 30 departure. – The news has no observable impact on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement markets, which remain focused on unrelated geopolitical issues.
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