Retail traders fare worse on prediction markets than sportsbooks

A new report from Citizens JMP says median losses are deeper on prediction platforms as retail traders face sharper, better-capitalized counterparties

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What to know:

• Retail users on prediction markets are losing more than legal sports bettors, with a median return of -8% since mid-2025 versus -5% on sportsbooks, while only the highest-volume prediction market traders are consistently profitable.
• Because prediction markets do not limit winning players, retail traders are more directly exposed to professionals and market makers.
• While gaming executives say prediction markets are not materially cannibalizing existing sportsbook revenue, platforms like Kalshi are attracting a younger user base and strong download growth, potentially capturing the next generation of bettors before they ever sign up for DraftKings or FanDuel.

Prediction markets are exciting, but they’re not reliable wealth builders for retail users.

Research by Citizens shows that retail prediction market users are losing more money than legal sports bettors, with the sharpest traders and market makers capturing returns on the other side of their flow which. The research note also reveals the platforms are drawing a younger demographic than traditional sportsbooks.

The median return for a prediction market user was -8% from July 2025 through mid-March, compared with -5% for sports book users over the same period, Citizens JMP Securities analyst Jordan Bender wrote, citing transaction data from analytics company Juice Reel.

Individuals trading more than $500,000 on prediction markets generated a median ROI of +2.6%, consistent with sharp-bettor benchmarks validated by professional players. Every cohort below that level was negative, sliding to -26.8% for users trading less than $100.

No cohort within legal sports betting was profitable either, but the decay is less severe: the $500,000-plus sports betting cohort posted -0.6%, and the smallest accounts came in at -29.3%.

One of the major differences between the two platforms is who is on the other side of the trade.

Prediction markets do not limit or ban profitable users the way regulated sportsbooks do, concentrating informed flow on the platforms. That flips the traditional model. In sportsbooks, the house manages risk and filters out winning players. In prediction markets, retail traders are directly exposed to professionals, market makers, and high-volume participants who consistently take the other side of less informed flow.

Two professional bettors on a Citizens JMP call last week said prediction markets offer a more attractive path to positive returns precisely because retail users provide the liquidity, the note reads.

Are prediction markets a threat to online gambling?

Gaming CEOs have dismissed the threat of prediction markets, according to the Citizens JMP report, which compiled executive commentary from 4Q25 earnings calls.

DraftKings' Jason Robins said prediction markets are not materially incremental to existing customers. Flutter's Peter Jackson said the company found no evidence of material cannibalization. BetMGM's Adam Greenblat estimated a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage impact on betting revenue. Citizens JMP's own estimate is around 5%.

The bigger issue may not be cannibalization but acquisition. About 24% of Kalshi users are under 25, with a median age of 31, compared with just 7% for DraftKings and FanDuel, where the median age is closer to 35, according to Sensor Tower data cited in the report. Roughly 90% of DraftKings revenue comes from users over 30, the report said.

FanDuel and DraftKings downloads fell 18% and 13% year-over-year from September 2025 through February 2026, per Sensor Tower data cited by Citizens JMP. Over the same stretch, Kalshi logged 6.3 million downloads.

Prediction markets may not be pulling existing sportsbook users away. They may be intercepting the next generation before they ever download DraftKings.

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