Rep. Nick Begich plans to revive the BITCOIN Act under a new name, the American Reserves Modernization Act (ARMA), aiming to establish Bitcoin as a U.S. strategic reserve asset. The market predicting Bitcoin will dip to $60,000 in April sits at 0% YES, indicating no expectation for a drop.
Market reaction
The rebranding and modifications to the legislation haven’t moved prediction market odds. The Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April contract remains at 0% YES. The April 30 sub-market has not received a single YES bet. Traders appear to read the legislative push as supportive of Bitcoin’s legitimacy and demand, with no bearish pressure priced in.
Why it matters
Combined 24-hour volume on related markets is zero, meaning this news has prompted no immediate trading action. Market depth remains thin, so any substantial trades could move prices significantly. The flat odds suggest traders treat Begich’s bill as background noise rather than a catalyst for price volatility.
What to watch
At 0% YES for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April, a YES share is a moonshot bet that pays off only if unforeseen bearish events hit within the next six days. A contrarian taking that position would need to believe in rapid legislative or geopolitical shifts that damage Bitcoin specifically. Watch for Congressional reactions and any shifts in institutional sentiment after the bill’s reintroduction, particularly comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or major institutional players like BlackRock signaling opposition to the legislation.
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Bitcoin Above On April 26| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 26 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One day after launch | 96.1% | — | — | Trade → |
