Qatar’s finance minister warned that a global shock from Iran’s tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz is “not far away.” The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanctions relief by April 30 dropped to 29.0% YES, down from 65% yesterday.
The April 30 market collapsed from 65% to 29.0% in 24 hours on $138,687 in trading volume. The largest single move was a 12-point drop at 10:27 AM.
The term structure shows a sharp jump from April to June. June 30 odds sit at 58.5% YES, a 27-point increase over 61 days, which suggests traders expect a possible catalyst in early summer. The December 31 market is at 70% YES.
Across these markets, $554,746 in USDC traded in 24 hours. Order book depth requires $1,719 to move the price 5 points, meaning the market is stable enough to resist small trades but vulnerable to larger orders.
A YES share by April 30, priced at 31.2¢, pays $1 if resolved, a 3.2x return. That bet requires believing in rapid de-escalation while Qatar is publicly warning about Hormuz disruption. Watch for statements from US or Iranian officials on negotiation terms, changes in operational language from CENTCOM, or any unexpected diplomatic contact.
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Us X Iran Diplomatic Meeting 833| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 29% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 64.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 50% | — | — | Trade → |
