Jen Psaki dismissed the idea of invoking the 25th Amendment against President Trump in an interview, saying it’s “never going to happen.” The market for Trump’s removal by April 30 sits at 0.8% YES, down from 1% a week ago.
Psaki’s comments cut against any speculation that Democrats could push for Trump’s removal through the 25th Amendment. The April 30 market reflects this, with odds staying near the floor. The June 30 market also dipped slightly to 5.5% YES, down from 6% a week ago. With 75 days remaining on that contract, major movement is unlikely without new developments.
Trading volume tells the rest of the story. The April 30 market trades $1,791 in USDC daily, and it takes $13,323 to move the odds by 5 points, meaning a single large trade could still cause a visible swing. The June 30 market trades $1,109 in USDC daily, with $37,198 needed to shift it by 5 points, making it harder to move.
Psaki served as White House press secretary under Biden, and her dismissal of the 25th Amendment path reinforces what the markets already price in. The before 2027 market is at 16.5% YES. A YES share on Trump leaving by April 30 pays a 125x return, but that bet requires a sudden change in political dynamics within 14 days.
Watch for statements from Republican leaders or unexpected health announcements from the White House physician. Either could be a catalyst for movement in these contracts.
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Trump Out As President June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
