The president’s vow to use all means to end the Middle Eastern conflict comes amid ongoing diplomatic talks. The probability of extending the US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 is at 69.5% YES, down from 86% just 24 hours ago.
Traders have responded to the president’s statement with mixed signals. The US-Iran ceasefire extension market shows the largest adjustment, with a 21.5-point drop overnight that suggests skepticism about diplomatic progress. Combined 24-hour trading volume hit $82,767 in actual USDC. The $9,463 needed to move the market 5 points indicates solid order book depth.
The military action against Iran markets, by contrast, sit at 100% YES across key dates, meaning traders are confident military actions won’t resume soon. Given the president’s focus on diplomacy, that pricing is consistent with expectations of continued negotiations rather than escalation.
The president’s commitment points to a real attempt at de-escalation, but the 21.5-point overnight drop shows traders aren’t convinced. A YES share at 64¢ pays $1 if the ceasefire is extended by April 21, a potential 1.56x return. That bet only makes sense if you believe a diplomatic breakthrough will happen within three days.
Watch the upcoming Islamabad talks, where any progress could move the odds quickly. A formal extension announcement would likely trigger a sharp repricing.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 10 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 69.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 37.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 52.5% | — | — | Trade → |
