Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry stated that no dates have been decided for the next round of US-Iran talks, as the market for Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April sits at 36.5% YES.
The absence of scheduled negotiations has kept traders on the sidelines. Odds of Trump agreeing to any Iranian demands this month are at 36.5%, unchanged from 24 hours ago. You can explore this market further here. The market is thin: $367 is enough to move prices by 5 percentage points.
The likelihood of no diplomatic meetings occurring by June 30 is at just 2.3% YES, meaning traders largely expect some form of engagement even with the current stalemate. That market has $77,986 in face value trading but only $1,133 in actual USDC, making it susceptible to sharp swings. See this market here.
No scheduled talks means no obvious path to Trump accepting Iranian demands before April ends. A YES share at 36.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a potential 2.74x return. For that to pay off, a negotiating breakthrough would need to happen within days.
Watch for statements from the White House or Pakistani intermediaries suggesting a new meeting date or location. Any concrete scheduling announcement could move these markets quickly.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.3% | — | — | Trade → |
