Pakistan has begun preparations for a new round of US-Iran peace talks, with increased security in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. The market for a permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 30.5% YES.
Market reaction
The April 30 market rose to 46.5% YES, while the May 31 market jumped to 64.5% YES. The gap between April and May odds suggests traders expect any deal to take longer than the next week but see real probability of one within six weeks.
The April 30 sub-market trades $175,529 USDC daily, with $19,364 needed to move the price 5 points, which indicates solid liquidity. The June 30 market has thinner depth, making it more susceptible to large swings on single trades.
Why it matters
Pakistan hosting these talks is new. Previous rounds did not involve a third-party venue with this level of security preparation. The Al Jazeera report, while Tier 3, points to concrete logistical steps rather than just diplomatic rhetoric. At 30.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a deal is signed by April 22, a 6.67x return. That payout reflects the difficulty of reaching a permanent agreement within a 6-day window.
What to watch
Statements from US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi are the most direct catalysts. Any signal of specific concessions or a confirmed meeting date could move odds quickly, particularly in the thinner longer-dated markets.
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Us X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 30.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 46.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 64.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 72.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
