Pakistan’s Information Minister reported ongoing efforts to bring Iran to a second round of talks. The US-Iran ceasefire extension by April 21 sits at 19% YES, down from 69% a week ago.
With one day left, traders are reacting to the lack of a formal response from Iran. The ceasefire extension market has been volatile, including a 16-point plunge at 2:54 PM. Traders are growing skeptical about the extension’s prospects. The market’s depth of $2,773 to move 5 percentage points reflects decent liquidity, but not enough to absorb large shifts.
The uncertainty also affects the US-Iran diplomatic meeting attendance market, though odds are not provided. Pakistan is mediating, but without Iran’s confirmed participation, the likelihood of a successful diplomatic meeting looks lower.
The absence of a confirmed Iranian delegation is a bearish signal for both the ceasefire extension and any subsequent diplomatic meetings. At 36¢, a YES share pays $1 if the ceasefire is extended, offering a potential 2.77x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a last-minute breakthrough.
Watch for Iran’s formal response before the ceasefire ends at 4:50 a.m. PST. Any statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry or a surprise announcement from Pakistan could move the odds sharply.
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