Oman and Iran are in talks about maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% from 12% last week.
The meeting hints at potential diplomatic progress, but short-term market reactions remain subdued. April 7 odds are at 1% with just four days remaining. April 15 odds have fallen to 6% from 22% a week ago. Longer-term odds show more movement: April 30 is at 18%, and May 31 is at 36%.
Despite these talks, trading volumes remain cautious. The April 30 market shows USDC volume at $197,596, with $19,925 needed to shift the price by 5 points. The largest recent move was a 2-point increase at 5:08 PM, indicating some optimism but no decisive action.
Diplomatic discussions often precede ceasefires, but this meeting alone doesn’t ensure resolution. Traders remain skeptical without concrete steps like scheduled talks or intermediary involvement. A YES share at 18¢ pays $1 if resolved by April 30, a 5.5x return, but requires more than diplomatic hopes.
Watch for official statements from Oman or Iran about significant agreements or intermediary involvement, such as Qatar. Comments from figures like Trump or Hegseth using terms like ‘productive’ could also affect odds.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
