A convoy of oil tankers has safely exited the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, according to vessel tracking data. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by the end of April is at 61.5% YES.
The safe passage of tankers has drawn attention to the Strait of Hormuz market, currently at 61.5% YES, down from 60% just 24 hours ago. The May 31 market is more optimistic, holding steady at 86% YES.
The 32-point gap between the April 30 and May 31 contracts suggests traders expect more significant developments over the next month. It costs just $354 to shift the April odds by 5 points, which means relatively thin liquidity and sensitivity to large trades.
The convoy exit may signal improving conditions, but the underlying report comes from a tier-3 source with no confirmation from other outlets. At 50¢, a YES share for the end-of-April resolution offers a potential 2x return. That price needs to be weighed against ongoing tensions and the risk of new provocations.
Watch for official statements from CENTCOM or the US 5th Fleet, and whether these transits become regular or remain isolated.
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Us Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 61.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 86% | — | — | Trade → |
