Oil prices jumped 5% following heightened US-Iran tensions as a ceasefire unravels. The Polymarket contract for WTI crude hitting $160 in April sits at 1.4% YES, up from 1% yesterday.
Market reaction
A 25-point spike occurred at 8:02 PM, moving odds from 1% to 26% before settling back down. The market now trades at 1.4% YES, with $72,164 in daily face value but only $704 in actual USDC volume. It takes $1,655 to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity.
Why it matters
The June market for crude oil hitting $90 has no active trades currently, but the US-Iran conflict could drive interest there too. With 73 days left until resolution, traders are watching for disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure.
The odds reflect concern over supply disruptions from military action. At 1.4% YES, a share pays $1 if WTI hits $160 in April, a 71.4x return. This is a high-risk bet that depends on continued escalation and blockades cutting into global oil flows.
What to watch
The next key date is April 22, when the current ceasefire expires. Any extension or breakdown will move these contracts. Statements from Trump or OPEC+ output adjustments are the other catalysts to track.
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