Oil Drops, Stocks Stretch Higher | April 17, 2026
Jadid Herrera6 min read·Just now--
The market is moving higher due to one major headline: the Strait of Hormuz is now open to commercial traffic. That news pushed oil sharply lower and sent stock futures higher, adding to a rally that is already very unusual.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is on track for a 13th straight up day. The last time the Nasdaq had 13 consecutive up days was in 2009. The last time it had a rally of more than 16% during a streak like that was in the dot-com era. Even more notable, this is the first time the market has had 13 up days with a gain of more than 16% while also reaching a new all-time high. That makes this rally not just strong, but rare.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is now getting close to the upper parallel of a channel that has been in place since 2020. Going into the session, the index was about 1.5% below that resistance level. Futures were pointing to another move of about three-quarters of 1%, which means the index might not hit that upper trend line right at the open, but it would get much closer. At this point, a test of that level looks very possible.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is showing a similar setup. An important area is around, or just below, 25,000. The larger parallel has acted as both support and resistance, and the midpoint of that structure was where the current rally started. There is still about 3.5% upside to that upper level, not including the current premarket move. Even if the market pauses, pulls back during the day, or slows down early next week, the chart still points to a possible move into the upper parallel on both the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq before a bigger selloff starts.
Options expiration is also part of what is happening. Two weeks ago, Put buying in the broader market and in major stocks was described as massive. In that kind of setup, institutions have a reason to keep the market high enough so those puts expire worthless, which lets them keep the premium from selling them. Falling oil helps that move, but it does not explain everything. Oil was still at $90 a barrel yesterday, while the Nasdaq had already rallied 16%. That means other forces were already helping drive the market higher.
The bigger economic picture has not gone away. Before oil jumped from $60 to $120, the economy was already not in great shape. The labor market was described as basically neutral, and consumers outside the top 10% or 20% income group were already under pressure. Once the Strait of Hormuz issue fades and energy stops being the main focus, attention is likely to shift back to those economic problems.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) is dropping hard after confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic for the length of the ceasefire. WTI traded as low as $81.75 before bouncing back toward $83, and later made another low near $80 a barrel in real time. Even so, the bigger view is that oil may not fall much below the $75 to $80 range. The reason is that countries that used their strategic reserves are likely to start buying again below $80 a barrel, which could help keep prices supported while those reserves are rebuilt.
Gold is moving higher, but the chart still sends a mixed message. The larger parallel still allows for upside of about $5,000 to $5,100. At the same time, gold is still described as being in a downward trend. Unless it breaks above the $5,100 zone, the bias stays to the downside. Silver is also moving up and has now reached the resistance level that had been watched for the last week or two. That level is $82, and the price is now at, or slightly above, it. The move is being tied to a risk on the environment, which is also helping gold, even though that has not usually been the normal relationship.
Natural gas (NG) was higher earlier and then pulled back a little. Even with that pullback, the setup is still seen as a possible breakout. A long position started a few days earlier is about flat, but the positive view is still in place even with oil falling.
Netflix Inc. (NFLX) reported earnings that roughly met, or slightly beat, revenue estimates, but guidance disappointed. Founder Reed Hastings leaving also added pressure, and the stock is under heavy selling. A day trade level was identified at $90.45, based on a pivot low and a gap window. A swing trade level was noted at $84.50, tied to a possible gap fill and an area that also lines up with earlier price action.
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), and Netflix Inc. (NFLX) were named as major technology companies that all traded lower after earnings. The main point is that the issue is not really the quality of the earnings, but how much optimism was already priced in. The market has gone so far up that even strong results are not enough if stocks are already priced to perfection. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company was described as having amazing numbers, and ASML Holding N.V. was said to have posted really good results, but both still fell.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is now at a major trend line and is expected to open at, or above, it. That trend line has acted as the trigger for each major pullback in semiconductors. The group is now up almost 30% from the low, and the area around $465 is being watched as a possible short level.
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) has also had a very strong run, climbing from about $135 to $185. That is a $50 move, and percentage-wise it is described as monstrous. The stock is now getting close to resistance, and the trade is seen as mostly finished at this point. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is moving higher, too. The $440 level is being watched as a possible future swing short area based on a pivot low, although the expectation is that it may not get there today.
Alcoa Corporation (AA) reported earnings, and the stock is moving lower. The reopening of the Strait is also seen as negative for the company because earlier supply concerns around aluminum factories had helped lift the stock during the conflict. If those factories start reopening and producing again, that should add downside pressure. A day trade interest level was noted at $58.50, though there was no plan to act unless the price reached that level.
Bitcoin (BTC) is continuing to move higher. For the last month and a half, the view was that Bitcoin could reach the $80,000 to $85,000 range. Intraday, it has now broken above $76,000. That level had been identified as a pivot point based on the former high. Since price is now moving through it, the expectation is for continued upside toward the $80,000 area if the move holds during the session. That is also seen as supportive for altcoins.
Ethereum (ETH) is also starting to move higher and is forming a bull flag. The upside target is around $2,600, possibly a little higher. The broader point is that crypto has been one of the few areas that has not really taken part in the recent rally, so it looks overdue. Sentiment is described as so bearish that it becomes bullish from a contrarian view. In the near term, the tone remains positive on crypto, even though the longer-term view still expects weakness later in the year, similar to the idea that the stock market will eventually roll over and break below the recent lows from two weeks ago.
Outlook
The short-term setup still supports more upside in risk assets. Falling oil, options expiration, and strong momentum in the major indices are all helping the move. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq are now close enough to their upper channel parallels that those levels may keep pulling the price higher.
At the same time, the market’s bigger problems have not been solved; they have only been pushed to the side for now. Once oil moves back into the $80 to $70 range and stops being the main story, attention is likely to return to the economy. The rally may still have more room to run, but the bigger view stays the same: once those major resistance levels are tested, the market becomes more open to a meaningful pullback.
