Iraqi militias and Iran have targeted U.S. embassies and bases with missiles and drones. The odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 have surged to 86.5% YES, up from 62% just a day ago.
Traders are reacting to the heightened tensions and potential U.S. ground operations in Iran. The April 30 market has seen odds jump from 62% to 86.5% YES. The December 31 market is even higher at 90.5% YES, up from 72% yesterday.
Liquidity is strong, with volume at $4.2M in real USDC traded daily. It takes $85K to move the April odds by 5 points, indicating institutional-grade depth. The largest price move was a 4-point spike, showing trader conviction on imminent action. The December market is less volatile but still shows increased odds, suggesting sustained tension.
The attacks signal an escalation, but the impact is soft due to the social media source. For traders, the April market at 86.5% YES implies a likely entry in 27 days. A YES share pays $1 if it resolves, offering a modest return given the current price. The December odds suggest traders expect prolonged engagement, with a 90% likelihood.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon, especially around troop movements or operational changes. Congressional actions regarding War Powers could also impact these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 86.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 90.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 86.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 90.5% | — | — | Trade → |
