A U.S. F-15E was downed, prompting a rescue operation near Isfahan. Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 have surged to 86% YES, up from 62% yesterday.
Traders are reacting to increased U.S. military activity in Iran. The April 30 market, with 27 days left, now stands at 86% YES. A 4-point spike at 2:14 PM shows active trading. The December 31 market also rose to 90% YES, indicating expectations of a prolonged U.S. presence.
This market trades $5 million in USDC daily, a key geopolitical signal. With $85,204 needed to move the April market by 5 points, institutional players are likely involved. The recent 4-point jump underscores sensitivity to news.
Events in Isfahan highlight escalating military actions under Operation Epic Fury. The rise in US ground operations probability is significant, given the tier-3 source classification. Traders are betting on continued military engagement. At 86¢, a YES share pays $1 if US forces are confirmed in Iran by April 30—a 1.16x return. Belief in further operational announcements within 27 days is crucial for this bet.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon on troop movements. Hegseth’s next briefing could provide key insights.
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 99.5% | +13¢ | $37.7M | Trade → |
| December 31 | 99.7% | +9.2¢ | $1.6M | Trade → |
