Nvidia has rolled out GPT-5.5-powered Codex to over 10,000 employees, and the Polymarket contract “Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?” sits at 92.5% YES.
The Codex deployment across Nvidia’s workforce deepens the company’s partnership with OpenAI and adds AI-assisted coding tools at scale. The June 30 contract trades at 92.5% YES. The December 31 contract, by comparison, sits at just 0.9% YES, showing traders doubt Nvidia holds the top spot through year-end.
Trading volume over the last 24 hours reached $101,970 in face value, though only $475 in actual USDC changed hands. The December contract is thin: $275 would move prices 5 percentage points, meaning a single large order could shift the outlook. The June contract’s odds have stayed stable, reflecting strong near-term conviction.
The deployment matters because it ties directly to Nvidia’s internal efficiency and cost structure. If Codex meaningfully accelerates software development across 10,000+ engineers, the productivity gains compound quickly. U.S. export controls on chips to China remain a background factor for Nvidia’s broader position. At 93¢, buying YES on Nvidia being the largest company by June 30 offers a 1.08x return if it resolves.
Watch for Nvidia’s next earnings report and any changes to U.S. chip export policy. Both could move these contracts.
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Largest Company End Of June 712| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 92.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
