No ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz today, as confirmed by Bloomberg. US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 now sit at 19% YES, up slightly from 18% yesterday.
Iran’s reimposed control of the strait and the IRGC’s aggressive posturing have cooled the market’s view on US naval escorts. US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 bumped to 19%, though bettors remain skeptical. UK warships transiting the strait are at 8.5% YES.
The market sees little chance of the UK or other nations risking a naval confrontation, especially given the IRGC’s threats against any vessels approaching the strait. UK warship odds dropped from 12% yesterday to 8.5% today. Iran’s rapid policy reversal is an escalation that puts any naval operations at higher risk.
Actual USDC trading on these markets is moderate, with $8,310 on US escorts. The market is thin: just $260 needed to move it 5 points. A notable 4-point spike occurred at 1:20 PM (24% → 28%), suggesting some trader conviction.
This is a genuine shift, not noise. Iran’s control of the strait is the core variable. At 22¢, a YES share for US escorts by April 30 pays $1, a 4.55x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe the US will decide to break the blockade within 12 days, a tall order given current tensions.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or reports of US naval movements. Macron’s diplomatic maneuvers or unexpected IRGC restraint could also shift the odds.
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Us Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 19% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
