John Phelan’s abrupt exit as Navy Secretary adds to Pentagon upheaval during the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The market for Trump announcing an end to military operations against Iran by March 1st sits at 0% YES.
Phelan’s departure is part of a broader leadership purge under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The Trump’s End of Military Operations Against Iran market prices a March 1st resolution at 0%, and the timing of the exit, during an active naval blockade, has done nothing to move that number.
The Kharg Island control by April 30 market is flat at 0.5% YES. Volume over the past 24 hours is $52,844 in USDC. The order book is thin enough that $34,065 would move the market 5 points.
Phelan’s exit during an active blockade removes a senior decision-maker from the chain of command at a moment when operational continuity matters most. For traders, a YES share at 0¢ pays $1 if resolved, but the market is pricing virtually no chance of that happening.
Watch for Hegseth’s next public statements or any changes in CENTCOM’s operational posture. Either could shift the calculus on whether military operations wind down or extend.
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Which Countries Will Conduct Military Action Against Iran April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
