Morgan Stanley has launched its Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, with Arkham identifying its on-chain wallets for real-time tracking. The market for Bitcoin reaching an all-time high by December 31, 2026, is at 16% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
The Bitcoin all time high markets for June 30, September 30, and December 31 all show increased optimism, with December’s odds rising the most. Traders appear to be pricing in a major catalyst later in the year rather than near-term. Trading volume across these markets has been modest, with $856 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. Moving the price 5 percentage points requires up to $3,641 in the December contract, meaning order books are thin. The largest single move was a 4-point jump in the December 31 market, likely a reaction to Arkham’s tracking revelation.
Why it matters
Morgan Stanley is the first wirehouses to launch a dedicated Bitcoin ETF product, and on-chain wallet identification by Arkham means anyone can now monitor its holdings in real time. If the fund attracts meaningful inflows, it adds direct buy pressure on Bitcoin. A YES share priced at 16¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits a new high by year-end, a 6.25x return. That bet depends on sustained ETF inflows and favorable regulatory conditions holding through 2026.
What to watch
Morgan Stanley’s MSBT inflow reports will be the most direct signal of institutional demand. Federal Reserve rate decisions also matter: lower rates tend to push capital toward risk assets like Bitcoin. Both could move these contracts materially given how thin the order books are.
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Bitcoin All Time High| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 3.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30, 2026 | 11% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 18% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
