Mojtaba Khamenei’s severe injuries from the February 28 airstrike have intensified speculation about a leadership change. The Iran leadership change by December 31 market is at 39% YES, up from 31% a week ago.
The December 31 market, now at 39% YES, shows the largest movement among the related contracts. The May 31 market is at 16%, an 8-point increase over the next 31 days. The April 30 market sits at 7% YES.
Trading volume is $5,626 in USDC traded daily. The order book requires $3,920 to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point spike at 12:41 AM.
The incapacitation of the new Supreme Leader amid ongoing conflict raises the probability of a leadership change. At 39¢, a YES share pays $1 if a change occurs by December 31, a 2.56x return. Belief in Mojtaba’s continued incapacitation would justify this bet, especially if the Provisional Leadership Council remains in charge.
Watch for announcements from the Assembly of Experts or IRGC statements on leadership. A public appearance by Mojtaba could shift the market sharply.
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Iran Leadership Change| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 39% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 7.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 4.6% | — | — | Trade → |
