Miners offloaded over 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing the previous high of 20,000 BTC from Q2 2022. This supply pressure coincides with the Bitcoin all-time high by March 31, 2026 market sitting at 3% YES.
The Bitcoin all-time high by June 30 market is at 3.4% YES. The September 30 sub-market is at 9.5% YES, while December 31 is at 17.5% YES. The biggest term structure shift is from September 30 to December 31, with an 8-point increase over 92 days, which suggests traders are pricing in a specific catalyst later in the year.
In the Bitcoin price predictions for April 15 market, confidence remains at 100% YES despite the increased supply pressure from miner sales.
Volume at $704 in USDC traded over the last 24 hours. Moving prices by 5 points requires $1,574 for June and $3,718 for September, indicating moderate depth. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike in the current session. This thin liquidity means even moderate-sized orders can move the odds significantly.
Miner selling pressures Bitcoin’s near-term price, but the 32,000 BTC sold is under 1% of spot volume, limiting the long-term effect. At 3¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin hits a new high by June 30, a 33x return. Traders are pricing a low probability of a quick rebound absent catalysts like ETF inflows or regulatory shifts.
Watch for Federal Reserve communications and energy cost shifts affecting miner profitability. Either could change the selling pressure and move these markets.
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Bitcoin All Time High| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 17% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
