MEXC holds a $260 million USDC debt on Aave V3, with liquidation risk looming in 6-8 days. The Bitcoin price prediction market on Polymarket prices an April dip to $60,000 at 15% YES, with a potential 15% move expected if cascading sales of ETH and WBTC collateral hit the market.
## Market reaction
This connects to wider DeFi instability from the KelpDAO rsETH exploit, which left a $200 million hole and brought Aave’s total value locked to $15.3 billion. The Bitcoin Price Prediction market reflects the anxiety, with the sub-market for April 30 showing the most concern. Days until resolution are down to six.
Trading depth is thin: $800 can move the market 5 points. No notable price moves have been recorded in the past 24 hours, but that illiquidity means a single large trade could swing odds sharply.
## Why it matters
A liquidation of MEXC’s position could force a fire sale of collateral, pushing crypto prices lower. For traders, YES shares at 15¢ pay $1 if Bitcoin hits $60,000, a potential 6.67x return. That bet requires cascading liquidations to materialize within the week.
## What to watch
Watch for Aave governance actions or liquidity maneuvers from MEXC. A significant ETH/WBTC price drop or emergency responses from the DeFi community would be the clearest signals of which direction this resolves.
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