MARA expected to post Q1 losses as investors look ahead to AI growth strategy

Investors look beyond bitcoin volatility towards long term AI infrastructure and data center revenue opportunities.

What to know:

• MARA is expected to report significant Q1 mark-to-market losses following bitcoin’s 25% decline during the quarter.
• Investor attention remains focused on the company’s expansion into AI and high performance computing infrastructure.
• The broader bitcoin mining industry continues shifting toward AI driven revenue models.

MARA Holdings (MARA) is scheduled to report first quarter earnings after the market close on May 11, with Wall Street analysts expecting the company to post losses on revenue and earnings (EPS) of $184.21 million and $2.34 respectively.

Results are expected to reflect the sharp decline in bitcoin prices during the first quarter, with BTC falling roughly 25% over the period, from roughly $87,000 to $67,000, creating significant mark-to-market losses on MARA’s digital asset holdings.

However, investor focus is likely to center less on short term bitcoin price volatility and more on the company’s strategic transition into artificial intelligence and high performance computing infrastructure. MARA has increasingly positioned itself as part of a broader industry shift in which bitcoin miners are leveraging their existing energy assets and data center expertise to secure more stable, long term AI-related revenue streams.

The AI transition includes FTAI Infrastructure agreeing to sell Long Ridge Energy to MARA in a $1.5 billion transaction. The deal is expected to provide MARA with long-term power-generation capacity and exposure to steadier cash flow opportunities tied to AI and data center contracts, reducing reliance on the highly cyclical bitcoin mining business, where revenues fluctuate with bitcoin prices, network difficulty, and transaction fees.

In the fourth quarter, MARA reported declining revenue of 6% year-over-year from $214 million to $206 million, though it also announced a partnership with Starwood to develop AI data centers delivering approximately one gigawatt of computing capacity in the near term.

During Q1, MARA sold 15,133 BTC, valued at approximately $1.1 billion, using proceeds to repurchase $1.0 billion of convertible notes, strengthen liquidity, and continue funding its AI expansion strategy.

The broader bitcoin mining sector is increasingly following a similar path. IREN (IREN) recently expanded its AI transition through a $3.4 billion AI cloud agreement with NVIDIA (NVDA), while also recording a $140.4 million non-cash impairment charge tied to the sale of ASIC mining hardware as it reallocates infrastructure toward AI cloud services.

In addition, HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) announced additional investments into AI and digital infrastructure, including $3.1 million to install high speed fiber infrastructure supporting a planned 50MW AI factory.

MARA shares rose 1% to $13 in pre-market trading.

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