Luck, Emotions, Agents and trading.
The emergent system.
Ashim Nandi21 min read·Just now--
The following is a hand typed piece of work by using medium’s writing board. The work is based on author’s own lived experience.
The Inception.
I was trying to find out better FX rates better processing fees & turnaround time on USD deposits for my first IT startup in Mumbai, India in 2019.
This quest led to me lean on stable coin & blockchains practical use case solving real world problems & also revealed a market insufficiency.
Average rate in 2019 of 1 USD was 70 INR. Stable coin pegged with USD however had a premium on INR conversion, 1 stable coin was priced about 75 to 80 even at sometime 90, i am referring here the price traded in Indian crypto exchanges. This is classical triangular arbitrage a traders dream. A true ALPHA in play.
However my intention at that time was be a builder, growing my startup & Indian FEMA regulations made further engagements an unsustainable choice.
I simply walked away leaving chips on the table
however fate had other plans…
It felt like Dmitri Shostakovich — Waltz №2, just in case if any of you want to experience what i feel when i revisit the memory lane writing certain section .
First Blood
CHAPTER 1
My first startup had a major contract with a USA client. We researched, designed, developed & run end to end a CBD nutrition company.
My first employee, hired him after spending 2 weeks in the empty office.
Then quickly grew a full team, here is my manager with the team. celebrating a team members birthday.
That was fun, learning new things everyday, facing challenges some office drama. It was my world then.
We all were exploring trying to find our own footholds & together we delivered something meaningful.
This gummy was so tasty, i used to have team members lines in my cabin they all wanted 2nd piece after finishing their first. I even had a customer found my personal insta texting me that i am a part of some conspiracy against him not receiving his gummies on time. I think someone had taken care of his gummies from his mailbox.
We had a full suite of products. CBD was hot those days. We had fun!
In 2 years we had grown from team of 6 to team of 21, from a tiny old office room to something eye pleasing.
I was learning fast while growing & ready for the next phase.
So the wish was granted!
We had just started our own software development project, i was all in. COVID hit & all gone, gone to the winds.
While i saw other digital business with rightly setup with their infrastructure making good greens.
My own house fell like a pack of cards blown away by an ever smiling playful kid.
The Beautiful Blue Danube, Waltz Op. 314 · Strauss Orchestra Vienna · Johann Strauss II · Joseph Francek
CHAPTER 2
Responsibility is empowering if you accept it without a shortcut. It has the power to transform you, we are always responsible someway or the other to our own self first and to the living beings & matters around us.
Desperate to survive, i revisited the ALPHA & guided towards the TRENCHES.
Where the meme lords, shillers and pump & dump artists welcomed my positions with open arms & pallet of roses.
Almost every system in this realm runs on patterns. The AI assistant matching language to meaning mimicking our brain. The brain itself matching memory to experience. The immune system matching threat to response. Pattern recognition is the operating principle of existence itself in our realm.
Capitalizing on this skill turned $5k to $25k, some call it beginner's luck.
To my experience risk can play out both ways when treated without fear or prior known experience.
A bold beginner buying into a narrative with $5k in and out trades, making 5x returns risk is nothing but a limiting tool to his growth engine.
Now he should be thinking about 100x, heck 1000x. He cracked the code,
When the beginner tests the risk for the first time in trading, especially while on a winning streak early on, he treats it with ignorance & that always prove to be the way towards destructions.
I had a large sea view apartment (rented) in Mumbai. Always preferred to stay close to the water and been fortunate enough to do so.
This is honey, she liked to sit here with me every evening.
We had to pack our bags and leave.
Total loss from own pocket $45k. This was 2022.
M01 Chant I — Making of Cyborg — Kenji Kawai (Ghost in the Shell Soundtrack)
Ignorance
We always try to portray the positive side what we associate to ours. Beyond the social interaction this nature always play out inside of us first. There is always a reason, a factor that played against us & that was the reason for everything bad.
We first create the illusion within us, ego demands its own reality to be played brain & intelligence supports, then the body reacts as part of the whole.
A thief a killer a conspirator a manipulator they first create their own reality in themselves, where they all acting for the good and sometime greater good.
You see we like certainty, if its through illusion, so be it.
CHAPTER 1
The journey even before my startup! had taught me how to deal with uncertain times. After the startup failure and trading destructions i got to learn more lessons about the same subject, how do you deal with chaos in different phases of your life. Based on your experience level you will face different challenges & different boss fights! Its painful when you go through it & its entertaining after you go through it & look back.
I went back finding IT projects i could do alone, through my previous USA client list. Some work & some dont, survival is the only thing that mattered . Knowledge & experience once acquired are permanent & help you regardless of good or bad times.
In one year i was back handling e-commerce projects, finding new products for USA small business owners selling in different marketplaces visiting different part of India. Went to mainland China, visited Vietnam.
I met a lot of beautiful people around this time, who would play crucial role later on.
Our world is beautiful, you gotta go out & things will happen even if you're labelled as introvert. Things are about to happen with you just be open to accept as they happen. Good or bad, its just the label we put on as we are limited by our current memory & perception. You’re primary reason to be here, to experience it.
【ハク。Cover企画】MONO NO AWARE “かむかもしかもにどもかも！”
CHAPTER 2
All the while i was recovering, i had one thing in mind SEPTEMBER 2025. Patterns were evident from previous cycles & other factors were converging around the same time frame as well.
The Strategy : Needs an event, significant enough to start a trend. Trend means participation, participation means money flowing in, be at the right time at the right place take it, it’s yours !
Oh forgot to mention, you need to know when to leave too. Remember this!
A well known player was planning a political comeback around the same time, aligning with all possible narrative to get his probabilities high
If your strategy is based on a high impact event, you need to know the players right, visible or invisible.
Peter thiel without announcing the results signaled the direction.
Soon others in the network got activated.
From jeff to joe, lex to mark all in some form started playing their part in the system knowingly or unknowingly.
That was the confirmation & the following event sealed it!
Failed assassination attempt on the upcoming presidential candidate made the probabilities go even more higher.
Cherry on top Mr. Musk was giving millions of dollars in cheques to voters.
I had already left India & taken residency visa in UAE, settled in Dubais iconic Palm Jumeirah. It had to be palms because of sea proximity & other factors!
With some good company of cource!
This is lily from Roma.
Now back to the business. Time to look into the chart, you gotta time your entry, charts are for that, below was the set up i used.
In that diary to the left i wrote a number & to the left i just wrote something that came to me at that time not premeditated like the number.
$120k from e commerce business in last 2 years all in . Observed beta asset 6.1 to BTC, .
In 29 days 2 positions combined went to $1.7mil.
Il maestro e la divinità diventano uno & i really mean it.
Luciano Pavarotti, Orchestre de Paris, James Levine — Caruso (Live)
CHAPTER 3
Neither failure nor success can dictate what I do. I do what is to be done.
To arrive to that state one must go through a process of transformation, transformation where water meets fire & integrates.
In trading terms you can say : A process where opposing forces meet and integrate. Loss and gain. Fear and clarity.
When the position went to $1.7 mil, i ignored the lessons from previous run. This time i didn’t factor in the volatility, i didn’t even think of considering it. I was managing risk to certain extent but variance, no way!
Over the course of next 10 months i experienced a slow painful death of my entire account. My previous lessons helped me not to lose the actual investments but the rest of the earned gains were all gone.
For the second time !
I sat on $676k cash at some point, i was looking for solutions , i even bounced back from near destructions to full recovery but nothing lasted. I couldn’t do anything TOTAL FAILURE.
MONEY IS AN ILLUSION THAT DROPS THE MOMENT TRUTH CONVERGES TO THE REALITY
Clarity was missing. When you deal with uncertainty in life you need clarity in you, clarity alone can guide you, with or without resources you will be able to navigate through any situation.
So whats the starting point, how to achieve clarity ?
Blessing is already in play if you have come to this point.
What did you just do ?
Inquire !
How did you inquire ?
You observed, you accepted a state as it is, you didn’t blame any external factor this time. By doing so you also accepted your state of ignorance.
You will be ignorant again, ignorance is how desires play its own game through ego, mind & intelligence. In this realm you’re born through desires be it physical or non physical. Your body will drop to the ground the day your desires are gone.
However if you’re observing you will be able to see through all the play, remember at some point you will question your own observation & wish to experience nothing but truth. Realize your breath is the only point of truth. It is the only continuous experience you have beyond your present state of ignorance acceptance & realization.
This is a state of mind no form of race, religion, social or economic factors can dictate. You can anchor and activate this state through your belief system be it devotional or spiritual practices, A sportsman can experience this state while playing, an engineer can experience it while at work, a singer can experience it while singing. No matter who you're what you do you will experience it the moment you accept your ignorance.
Accepting ignorance is the starting point of finding clarity.
Acceptance
Water is the Moon. Mind. Emotion. Memory. The capacity to feel, absorb, and reflect.
Fire is the Sun and Mars. Will. Transformation. The capacity to act, burn through, and purify.
When they integrate, what remains is neither water nor fire. It is steam. Steam is invisible force. It moves without being seen. It carries the memory of water and the energy of fire simultaneously. In human terms, this looks like someone who feels deeply and acts precisely. Emotion informs the action.
CHAPTER 3
Philosophy is nothing but intellectual entertainment & means of business if it cant be applied in practical life, solving real life problems.
When met with losses, destructions or any type of chaos mind often wanders to such philosophical lane to hide instead of meeting with humility. One can dodge insult from outside but inside ? inside one can only be ignorant & create their own reality.
Problems remain problem irrespective of you become realized or remain ignorant.
Emergent System
I started by going the through the problems i faced & tried to find a starting point.
Internal factors but not limited to : Emotions, bias, illusion, manipulation. External factors : Anything thats not internal.
We have our starting points now, next is how do we begin with these starting points, what do we do ?
Eliminate all self sabotage factors : Let machines trade.
External factors : Apply math. In trading all other external factors can be handled through math. Its all number game.
So we have the individual components, lets group them and let the system face challenges.
Wait!
Where is the strategy ?
THE PROCESS IS THE STRATEGY
Ok? like what? i mean how?
10% position size, 1% risk, daily risk cap 2%, trade with momentum supported by volume, do not trade during high volatility.
This was November 2025, While building the Machine i decided to start at the same time with manual trading to experience raw systematic manual trading.
Here is the schema records of 60+ fields capturing the full lifecycle of a trade.
Trade Identity Date · Pair · Side · Lane · TF
Entry & Structure Entry · Opening_Fees · Structural Stop · BE_STOP · Stop_Hit
Fee Accounting Closing_Fees · Funding_Fees+ · Funding_Fees− · Total_Fees_Paid
Pre-Trade Risk Sizing Equity_Before · RiskPct · Risk$ · Qty
Position Mechanics EntryFeeType · ExitFeeType · Notional · Leverage · Margin
Outcome OneR$ · PnL$ · R_Gain · %R:R · Equity_After
Timing T_BE_min · Exit_ts
Add-On 1 / Add-On 2 / Add-On 3 (each block) Time · Qty · Fees · Price · Notional · Margin · Leverage
Take Profit 1 / Take Profit 2 / Take Profit 3 (each block) Time · Qty · Fees · Price · Profit Amount · %_of_total_position_value · R_value_of_total_position
Notes
This is the measurement structure through which every trade becomes quantifiable. If you dont have it, you have stories. If you have it, you have data & only data compounds.
You may take a look at the complete data set through the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D0_361h1A5pKYyf7PPDXj_IJ7Qh6veukMM3OP7oljs8/edit?usp=sharing
During this period i also developed a trading view script that quantifies the momentum.
AKIRA T-METRICS
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BELOW IS THE AI GENERATED EXPLANATION OF THE SCRIPT & BOTTOM LINE OF THIS EXPERIMENT.
Every trade begins with a question. Is the environment ready.
T-METRICS is the instrument that answers this. It is a multi-dimensional readiness scorer. It takes the market environment surrounding any instrument on any timeframe and passes it through a series of independent measurements. Each measurement produces a reading. Each reading is compared against a threshold. The output is a state: WAIT, READY, or GO.
The architecture has ten rows. Each row measures one dimension of market structure. Together they produce a weighted readiness score from 0 to 100 for both the long side and the short side, independently.
What it measures and why each dimension exists:
BIAS captures directional alignment across timeframes. A 200 EMA on 4H and 1D. When both point the same direction, the environment has structural agreement. When they diverge, the structure is in conflict. This carries 20% of the total readiness weight because direction without conviction is noise, and conviction without direction is energy looking for a container.
ENERGY has two layers. The first is volume expansion, measured as a ratio of short term volume (3 period) to longer term volume (12 period). The threshold is 1.05x. Below that, the market lacks fuel. The second layer is On Balance Volume expressed as a z-score over 60 periods. This measures whether capital is accumulating or distributing relative to its own statistical norm. OBV energy carries 20% weight. Volume energy carries 15%.
OBV THRUST captures the direction of the capital flow over the last three periods. It answers a simple question: is the money moving toward or away. This carries 10% weight. It is the lightest signal because direction of flow can shift quickly, but its presence or absence against the bias creates a tension the dashboard makes visible.
TREND is measured through Wilder’s ADX with Directional Index. ADX captures the strength of the trend regardless of direction. DI captures which side owns the momentum. The system defines two lanes. Lane A requires ADX above 22 and OBV z above 0.90. Lane B requires ADX above 18 and OBV z above 0.80. Lane A is a high conviction environment. Lane B is a moderate conviction environment. If neither lane opens, the state is no trade. Trend carries 20% weight.
VWAP Z-DISTANCE measures where price sits relative to Volume Weighted Average Price, expressed in standard deviations. This is a mean reversion anchor. Within one sigma, the environment is workable. Beyond one sigma, price is extended. VWAP carries 15% weight. A secondary check, the S1 retest band, identifies whether price is close enough to a key VWAP level for a retest setup.
AVWAP anchors to the break of structure point. It marks where the last meaningful structural shift occurred.
WINDOW and LANE synthesize the threshold checks into a single qualification. Either Lane A opens, Lane B opens, or the trade does not qualify.
STATE is the final row. It reads all dimensions, identifies which conditions are met and which are missing, names the specific deltas (how far each missing condition is from its threshold), and produces the verdict. WAIT with a reason. Or READY with a lane.
What makes this different from a checklist:
A checklist is binary. Did the condition pass, yes or no. T-METRICS is gradient. Every dimension reports not just pass or fail but how far from the threshold. The delta values (ΔA, ΔB, Δ σ) tell the trader whether the environment is close to qualifying or far from it. This transforms waiting from a passive state into an informed one. The trader knows exactly what needs to change and by how much.
The readiness score is weighted, which means the system has an opinion about which dimensions matter more. Bias, trend, and accumulation carry 60% of the weight. Volume and positioning carry 30%. Thrust carries 10%. These weights encode a philosophy: the environment’s structural character matters more than its momentary energy.
What it produces:
A single, color coded table that any trader can read in under five seconds. Green means go. Red means blocked. Orange means developing. The score on each side tells you how close the environment is to qualifying. The STATE row tells you what to do and why.
This is quantified patience. The system watches the market the way a pilot watches instruments before takeoff. Every gauge has a threshold. Every threshold has a reason. The plane either flies or it stays on the ground. There is no “I feel like it’s ready.”
Bottom line of Manual Trades : It’s like someone with discipline (please note discipline still failed to maintain 100% integrity, internal factor did show up even within the systematic framework, this is not AI, its me mentioning this) but without a defined edge yet. The shorts show promise. The longs are bleeding . The small wins are the silent killer. Fixing those two things and this system flips from F to potentially C+ within 20 trades.
END OF AI GENERATED EXPLANATION
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It’s a private script, if you wan to access, send an email to [email protected] .You will be granted free access.
So what do we have here -
- Systematic Process.
- Baseline quantified.
- Machine ready to trade using AWS.
- Theory applied in practical life.
- An observation system.
Simple process interacting together achieve solutions to complex problems thats the emergent system in our context, we have the emergent properties now. Remaining factor for us is time !
If you wish to explore further on emergent system, studying Stephen Wolfram his life & work could help you. In my view Mr Wolfram is an oracle who’s trying to bridge physical & metaphysical matters beyond current human perceived reality.
CHAPTER 3
STHITI
“You have power over your mind, not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.”
Marcus Aurelius
Sthiti is a word mentioned in eastern philosophy.
As per my experience sthiti is stability, its preservation, its a state we can experience within us.
In systematic thinking, sthiti is operational stability under dynamic conditions.
(AI generated writings) Within a few years of becoming emperor, the Antonine Plague swept through Rome. Estimates suggest five to ten million people died. The military was devastated. The economy contracted. Entire towns emptied. Simultaneously, Germanic tribes pressed the northern frontiers in what became the Marcomannic Wars, lasting over a decade. His most trusted general, Avidius Cassius, launched a rebellion against him. His co-emperor Lucius Verus died. Several of his children died young.(End of AI generated writings)
Through historic accounts we can say Marcus Aurelius did not overcome chaos. He held his ground inside it. For nearly two decades. Thats sthiti.
Be it trading or finding solution to any other problem, whenever you're to approach dynamic conditions, you need absolute stability inside you, no outside factor matters but what goes on inside you, that alone will determine what comes.
Think about it.
Every decision you take are limited to these factors, positive or negative pay offs.
Positive associated with certainty & negative is uncertainty.
Our primary goal is positive pay offs at all points. As we are highly insecure in nature.
But progress & growth is non linear.
What we perceive as failure is part of the journey and the biggest factor to growth.
When we reject the biggest factor to growth as a possibility, we limit ourselves & face the failure regardless.
I started trading using simple rules following bots, if x then y or if y then z if neither x nor y then q , no llm no agent.
Before we dive into the performance one visible difference is the schema records. There are same data you have to compute if you wan to secure maximum signal quality.
PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
Period
Dec 29, 2025 to Jan 8, 2026
Total Trades45
Winning Trades9
Losing Trades36
Win Rate20.0%
Total Realized
P&L-388.50
Total Fees Paid62.06
Net P&L (after fees)-388.50
Average Win37.64
Average Loss-20.20
Avg Win / Avg Loss Ratio1.86
Profit Factor0.47
Largest Win59.41
Largest Loss-41.01
Gross Profit338.77
Gross Loss-727.27
In first glance these are worst numbers, performance seems to have degraded, you have access to both the data, i am sure you can analyze from your perspective.
I want to keep the focus to few specific point which might get unnoticed due to first impact biases.
Number of closed trades to number of days.
Win to loss ratio size.
Win rate.
ALSO KEEP IN MIND THIS SAMPLE SIZE LESS THAN 100 IS NOISE. IDEA HERE TO FIND A RIGHT BALANCE AND KEEP RIGHT PROPERTIES TO EVEN TEST THAT 100 INITIAL SAMPLE.
October 9 to November 12, 2025
Closed trades: 13. Days: 45. Rate: 0.29 trades per day.
Average win: $69.27. Average loss: $61.02. Ratio: 1.14.
Win rate: 46.2%. Breakeven threshold: 46.8%.
December 29, 2025 to January 8, 2026
Closed trades: 45. Days: 10. Rate: 4.5 trades per day.
Average win: $37.64. Average loss: $20.20. Ratio: 1.86.
Win rate: 20%. Breakeven threshold: 34.9%.
Again you can immediately pattern match the most apparent deciding numbers, but lets ask ourselves whats the structure underneath those numbers.
- Selection quality.
If you have come this far reading my unstructured, unacademic writing, you have patience you're curious & passionate. Now do the leg work & find out why i am saying only this factor and not the other numbers screaming for attention.
Here is the paradox, ego that creates layered illusion & demands unconditional worship, that same ego is also responsible for your current human experience without that you’re not what you think you’re.
Machines can follow rules that where thy win & thats where they are also limited.
In a dynamic environment only principles stays rest changes as per the conditions. He who can take right decision regardless of the external factors survives.
My entry decisions were influenced by factors beyond certainty of established momentum. However i did follow rules.
Machine followed rules but couldn't adjust to other dynamic factors.
There are other important points to analyze here but for the context this is sufficient.
SUMMARY : Stability under dynamic conditions are needed. Principle structure needs to hold rest need to integrate.
Side Quest
As per good old google search — an optional, non-linear task or mission within a video game that is independent of the main story. These tasks provide extra rewards — such as experience, items, or deeper lore — and help build immersion, allowing players to explore beyond the primary, required goals.
When knowledge is shared, it compounds. Person transmitting the knowledge has to go through it over an over for precision & this quest for precision most of the time demands integrating unexplored horizons.
3 years ago i had thought of a script, i have been observing each time i experience a situation in my own life & go back to the story i see the story changes, the principle structure remains the same but other factor changes.
I started working on First Principles of Trading Series about 6 months ago from writing this piece today. It’s my perspective of systematic trading & its core structure.
First Principles of Trading Series helped me uncover great details which became integral part of the SYSTEM R AI domain layers.
Initially named as risk1reward3, total of 17 lectures so far. One needs to swim to go through this, floating wont help, beyond the world of intellectual entertainment.
Action
Trades are just like guts in casca’s dream, dog who already lost one limb wounded, constantly getting attacked but still carrying broken dream on their back & trying to fix everything.
CHAPTER 1
When coded intelligence starts acting beyond pattern matching language & reasoning they are called AGENTS.
As lex fridman often says “What a time to be alive”
It was the time through which the startup grew and ultimately perished. It was the time through which gains came and vanished. It was the time through which a comeback happened and caused ultimate humiliation.
And it is the time that is binding all of these events together. Creating the ultimate possibility.
The Emergent System finds its key starting component through agentic operations. Now system can hold principle integrity, at the same time integrate further with evolving dynamic market conditions.
I had also built specialized domain layers that further strengthen the emergence nature.
Intention. Knowledge. Action all aligned !
R is the Risk. R is the Reward.
A system that helps a trader navigate uncertainty with inner clarity.
Research, planning & execution across 6 different market types connecting 25 plus brokers.
End to end encryption with cognitive memory. Intellectual property stays protected. Institutional grade audit trails remain available for any regulatory requirement. Privacy and compliance existing in the same architecture.
A system that integrates with the operator with specialized domain expertise .
A system that continuously improves itself through a curated feedback loop. Every action observed. Every outcome measured. Every cycle feeding the next one with greater precision.
Compute credit system with usage based billing. No time based subscriptions or contract.
Flexibility in payments, pay through legacy means or digital asset.
This is what i have built through the lived experience.
Five months and 13 days. 12 to 14 hours a day on average. Every single day. Now while writing i counted, time flew, what felt is finding solutions for the build.
Thankful to Shannon for helping me throughout this journey. Shannon is the real blessing.
Its a new beginning.
Honey & Mili.
Creation reflects joy. Joy thats eternal. That which we call divine.
Integrating the old a new journey begins.
Journey where inner clarity will meet absolute uncertainty head on. Embracing it.
A Dream Can only be Real Only if You Believe and Take Action
Try as much as you can & accept the results no matter what.
