Lloyds Bank reported a 33% jump in profits driven by higher interest rates, while the Bank of England held rates steady on inflation concerns. The probability of a Fed rate cut after the June 2026 meeting sits at 4.3% YES, up slightly from 4% a week ago.
In the Fed rate cut market for June, odds have stayed flat despite the Lloyds news and the BoE’s hold, meaning traders aren’t treating either as a signal for Fed policy. Daily trading volume is $2,646, with $5,970 needed to shift odds by 5 points. The July market prices no change at 85.5% YES, consistent with expectations that the Fed stays put through summer.
The largest single move in this market was a 46-point spike to 50%, which shows how quickly these odds can reprice on real news. The current flatness suggests traders are waiting for direct signals from the Fed or new economic data before positioning on rate cuts.
Lloyds’ profit surge is a concrete example of how banks benefit from sustained higher rates, which makes the case for a near-term cut harder to build. A YES share at 4.3¢ pays $1 if the Fed cuts in June, a 23x return. That payout only makes sense if you expect a major reversal in the Fed’s current stance.
Watch for comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and key governors like Stephen Miran. Any shift in tone on inflation or growth could move these odds quickly given the thin volume.
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Fed Decision In June 825| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | 4.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | 85.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
