Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called in a televised address to transform the ceasefire with Israel into permanent agreements. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market is now at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
Aoun’s address points to a diplomatic shift that has driven confidence in the current ceasefire holding. The April 30 market saw a 13-point spike, with daily volume at $1,041,878 in USDC. The June 30 market trades at 96.6% YES, showing even higher confidence over the longer timeframe.
The market for Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meetings by April 30 sits at 100% YES. Aoun’s public push for permanent agreements is consistent with the market’s certainty that talks will continue.
Total volume across these ceasefire markets is $1,205,891 in USDC. The April 30 market requires only $50,093 to move the price 5 points, meaning it remains sensitive to large trades. The largest recent move was the 13-point surge following Aoun’s remarks.
Aoun’s call for permanent agreements raises the possibility of a durable settlement, but Hezbollah’s position is still uncertain. Buying YES at 94¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire holds through April 30. For traders focused on longer-term peace, the outcome depends on Hezbollah’s compliance and Israel’s military posture.
Watch Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio for next steps. Any confirmation of disarmament efforts or extensions in agreements would likely move these markets further.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 28.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 46.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
