A Lebanon ceasefire has come into effect after 60 days of conflict. Israel recorded 9,293 missile and drone alerts, with current activity dropping to once every 17 minutes post-Iran ceasefire. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 93.7% YES.
The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market rose from 45% a week ago to 93.7% YES. The June 30 market is at 96.6%. The 3-point spread between April and June over 61 days suggests traders expect the ceasefire to hold long-term rather than collapse quickly.
Volume hit $1,205,891 in USDC over the past 24 hours, with $50,093 in depth required to move the April market 5 points. The largest price move was a 13-point spike at 1:16 PM, coinciding with the ceasefire announcement.
The 9,293 alerts over 60 days reflect the intensity of fighting that preceded this agreement. A formal ceasefire at this scale changes the calculus for traders pricing regional risk. That said, Israel-Hezbollah ceasefires have broken down before, and the April market’s 6.3% NO position reflects that history.
Watch for IDF statements and Hezbollah’s response in the coming days. Any breach of the ceasefire or renewed rocket fire would move these markets sharply.
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Israel Military Action Against Iran 167| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 10 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
