Thousands of Lebanese are attempting to return home following the Israel-Lebanon truce. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market is at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
Market reaction
The truce has not been officially acknowledged by Hezbollah, but adherence to a 10-day ceasefire has pushed traders toward formalizing expectations. The June 30 market is at 96.6% YES. The April 30 market, with 14 days left, jumped from 59% to 72% in a single spike.
Odds of Israel suspending its Lebanon offensive by April 30 are at 96.2% YES, up from 87% just 24 hours ago. The market’s largest move was a 9-point surge, suggesting traders expect a formal suspension announcement soon.
Why it matters
Total volume across relevant ceasefire markets is $1.2M in USDC. Moving the June market 5 points requires $135K, which signals heavy positioning. The Lebanon offensive suspension market requires only $25K for a similar move, meaning thinner liquidity and more room for price swings there.
The truce could ease broader U.S.-Iran negotiations. Hezbollah’s silence, rather than rejection, is itself a signal traders are pricing in.
What to watch
Watch for Netanyahu’s announcements and any Hezbollah leadership communication. Changes in IDF operations or confirmed disarmament talks would move these markets sharply. A YES share for April 30 ceasefire at 94¢ pays 1.06x. Traders looking for better upside should watch for signs of Hezbollah’s formal commitment or Israeli government statements.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | +3.4¢ | $348K | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | +6.3¢ | $1.3M | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | +3.8¢ | $113K | Trade → |
| May 31 | 100% | +2.2¢ | $49K | Trade → |
| June 30 | 100% | +1.6¢ | $74K | Trade → |
| April 17 | 100% | +10.6¢ | $1M | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 0.1% | 0.0¢ | $88K | Trade → |
| April 21 | 4.5% | 0.0¢ | $128K | Trade → |