Lebanese President Joseph Aoun publicly condemned Hezbollah as treasonous, pushing for a diplomatic resolution to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. The market for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026 is at 100% YES.
Aoun’s rebuke and diplomatic push could affect the Trump endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, currently at 100% YES. His position is consistent with U.S. diplomatic efforts, which could increase the likelihood of Trump’s endorsement. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 is also at 100% YES.
Volume across these markets is at a standstill, with no trading activity reported. Traders may be waiting for concrete developments, such as a formal ceasefire announcement or Trump’s public endorsement, before adjusting positions.
Aoun’s statement is a direct move against Hezbollah, which has historically been backed by Iran, and signals Lebanon’s interest in resolving tensions diplomatically. At 22¢, a YES share on an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 pays $1, a 4.5x return if Aoun’s diplomacy leads to a deal within six days.
Watch for responses from Hezbollah and statements from U.S. officials. Any public commitment from Trump or Netanyahu could further solidify ceasefire prospects.
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Will Trump Endorse An Israeli Ceasefire In Lebanon April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 26 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
