Ten crypto protocols were exploited over the past week, with losses linked to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. The Polymarket contract for another $100M+ crypto hack by December 31 sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
The breaches, including Drift Protocol and Kelp DAO, have pushed the another $100M+ crypto hack by year-end contract to full certainty. Lazarus Group’s involvement points to state-sponsored operations rather than opportunistic hacking. Exploits are averaging one every 2.9 days over the past week.
Why it matters
With 251 days left until resolution, the contract shows $0 in 24-hour trading volume. The 100% YES price wasn’t driven by active trading but by the cumulative weight of recent breaches making another $100M+ incident look inevitable. At this pace, the question is timing, not probability.
What to watch
The frequency and scale of exploits are accelerating. Lazarus Group’s track record (the group was behind the $625M Ronin bridge hack in 2022) means the threat is well-resourced and persistent. DeFi protocols with large TVL and bridge infrastructure are the most likely targets for a $100M+ event.
Monitor reporting from Chainalysis, CertiK, and ZachXBT for early identification of vulnerabilities or confirmed breaches. Any new Lazarus Group attribution would likely move related prediction markets.
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Another Crypto Hack Over 100m December 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13-19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
