Kuwait has declared force majeure on crude oil and refined product shipments, citing the Strait of Hormuz blockade as a barrier to fulfilling customer obligations. The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait between April 13-19 is now at 0.4% YES, up from 0% yesterday.
Market reaction
The fewer than 10 ships transiting market moved from 0% to 0.4%, a small absolute shift but notable given only one day remains in the resolution window. The odds still imply near-certainty that at least 10 ships will have transited by April 19.
On the UK warship market, odds sit at 8.5% YES, ticking up slightly after the declaration. Daily volume is $1,412 in USDC, meaning a $304 order can move the price by 5 points. That thinness makes the market vulnerable to single large trades.
Why it matters
The force majeure declaration signals that at least one Gulf state considers the blockade severe enough to invoke contractual escape clauses on oil shipments. But traders should weigh the source: this originated from a tier-3 social media account, which leaves room for skepticism about how much weight the news deserves.
What to watch
At 0.4¢, buying YES on fewer than 10 ships pays $1 if it resolves, a 250x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe the blockade will completely halt transit today. On the UK warship side, the next statement from the UK Ministry of Defence could move the market sharply given how thin the order book is. Any confirmed naval deployment or diplomatic development will reprice both contracts.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 1.5% | — | — | Trade → |
