Arkham identified the KelpDAO attacker relocating $175.41M to new Ethereum addresses after Arbitrum’s Security Council froze $71M linked to the $292M exploit. Odds for another $100M+ crypto hack by December 31 sit at 100% YES.
The market tracking large-scale hacks by year-end is fully priced for another event. The hacker moved the majority of stolen funds to fresh addresses even after Arbitrum’s intervention, which points to an active laundering phase and ongoing vulnerabilities in DeFi platforms.
The Solana price and Ethereum price markets are unaffected by this hack. Solana’s odds for April 15 and Ethereum’s for April 13 hold steady, indicating traders treat this as an isolated DeFi issue rather than a broader crypto market risk.
Trading volume for the hack prediction market is at $0 face value, but the situation is fluid. Any new exploits could trigger a quick spike in speculative activity, and the market’s thin liquidity means even modest real-dollar bets could move prices sharply. At 22¢ per YES share, a payout would mean a 4.5x return if another major hack occurs. Traders betting NO would need to believe security protocols across major platforms improve dramatically before year-end.
Watch for further action from Arbitrum’s Security Council or new alerts from blockchain security firms like CertiK or Chainalysis. The hacker’s fund movements and any connection to groups like Lazarus Group will be the next signals for this market.
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Solana Price On April 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
