Keiko Fujimori leads provisional results in Peru’s 2026 presidential election with roughly 17% of votes counted. Rafael López Aliaga’s chances of finishing first in the first round have dropped, with his market sitting at 8.5% YES.
Fujimori’s lead triggered a quick repricing. López Aliaga’s market fell from 18% a day ago to 8.5%. With 35-36 candidates in the race and none projected to clear 50%, a runoff on June 7 is near-certain.
The broader presidential election market is trading with a face value of over $770,000 daily but only $123,852 in actual USDC. The largest single move was a 5-point drop at 3:27 PM, showing rapid trader adjustments to the incoming results.
With Fujimori ahead and López Aliaga trailing, the market is pricing in a clear shift away from a López Aliaga victory. A YES share in his market at 8.5¢ pays $1 if he wins, a 6.67x return. For that bet to pay off, you’d need a significant swing in voter sentiment or a miscount in ONPE tallies.
Watch for ONPE updates on vote counting and any new polling data. Either could move the market further.
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