A wallet linked to Justin Sun’s HTX Recovery withdrew $274 million USDT from Aave within 25 minutes of a market freeze. Solana’s April 18 price prediction market on Polymarket shows a 15% decrease in YES odds.
Market reaction
The withdrawal happened between 19:12 and 19:17 UTC, following the Aave freeze on April 18 triggered by a Kelp DAO exploit. The exploit caused a security lockdown across Aave on multiple chains. Solana’s market saw declining confidence as DeFi concerns spread.
Ethereum markets were largely unaffected, with YES prices holding at 100% for various April 17 price thresholds. Trader attention is concentrated on Solana, where institutional positioning and sentiment could push prices lower.
Why it matters
A $274 million withdrawal by a single actor within minutes of a freeze points to an asymmetric information advantage. The speed of the extraction, completed in roughly five minutes, suggests pre-positioned transactions or automated triggers. A YES share for Solana’s April 18 target is priced at 85¢, paying $1 if it resolves, a 1.18x return. That thin margin means traders need strong conviction in a recovery to take the long side.
What to watch
Any announcements from Aave on resolution steps or protocol adjustments. Changes in Solana trading volumes on Polymarket. Further wallet activity from Justin Sun-linked addresses, which could signal directional bets or continued risk reduction.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
What Price Will Ethereum Hit On April 17| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
