Jerome Powell’s final Fed rate decision could come April 29, with incoming chair Kevin Warsh calling for a “regime change.” The market for Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15 is at 73% YES, up from 26% yesterday.
Market reaction
The May 15 market surged 47 points in a single day, pricing in a swift transition. The May 31 and June 30 sub-markets are at 97% and 98% YES, meaning traders treat Powell’s exit as a near certainty. Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 is trading at 92% YES.
Market depth shows $25,950 in USDC traded across Powell’s exit markets. The largest single move was a 48-point spike, and some traders appear to be positioning for quick gains on the volatility.
Why it matters
Warsh’s “regime change” framing could signal a different monetary policy direction, potentially reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in 2026. A YES share in the rate cut market looks less attractive given Warsh’s stance and the current economic backdrop. At 73¢, betting on Powell’s exit by May 15 pays $1, a 1.37x return if Warsh’s confirmation goes through.
What to watch
Senate Banking Committee activity and any public statements from Warsh or Powell. Either could be the catalyst that resolves these markets.
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Jerome Powell Out As Fed Chair| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 97% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 73% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 92% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 1 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.1% | — | — | Trade → |
