The Israeli Air Force is launching a new Heron drone squadron as operations surge post-October 7. Israel’s military action against Iran by April 21, 2026, is at 4% YES, down from 22% a week ago.
The Heron drones will operate from Hatzor, with flight hours increasing fivefold. The Israel military action against Iran market has dropped sharply, with traders pricing in very low probability of imminent action despite the drone buildup. With just one day left until April 21, the odds reflect near-zero expectation of new strikes.
The Iran military action against countries market is at 100% YES for April 30. Iran has responded to Israel’s drone expansion with a tenfold increase in its own drone production, which likely keeps traders locked in at that ceiling. The lack of actual trading volume in this market, though, suggests little active engagement or sentiment shift.
The Israel-Iran market trades $14,633 in actual USDC daily, with a $501 investment enough to move the price 5 percentage points. This is a thin market where modest trades produce outsized price swings. The biggest price shift was a 4-point drop at 7:25 PM, likely from a single large sell order.
The new squadron adds surveillance and strike capacity at a time when Israel is expanding its drone infrastructure. But current odds show traders treating the April 21 deadline as effectively expired, with more attention on Iran’s retaliatory capabilities heading into the April 30 window.
Look out for statements from Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu or any confirmation of new military operations. Either could move these markets quickly.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Israel Military Action Against Iran 167| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 1 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 5 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 9 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
