No air raid sirens have been reported in Israel for over 24 hours following the recent ceasefire. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market is at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
Market reaction
The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market jumped nearly 50 points in a week, with traders pricing in high confidence that the ceasefire holds. The June 30 market is at 97% YES, pricing in sustained peace over a longer window.
The Israel suspension of Lebanon offensive market also moved. The April 30 sub-market is at 96% YES, up from 87% just 24 hours ago. Traders appear to expect a formal announcement suspending military operations in Lebanon soon.
Why it matters
The ceasefire market has $1.55M in combined face value and $1.21M in actual USDC traded. The depth needed to move the price by 5 points is $50,093, which indicates strong liquidity behind the current pricing. The Israel suspension of Lebanon offensive market trades at a more modest pace, with $822K in face value and $340K in actual USDC exchanged.
Over 24 hours without sirens is a concrete data point, but it doesn’t guarantee the ceasefire will last through April 30. At 94¢, a YES share on the April 30 ceasefire pays $1 if it holds, a 1.06x return. The thin upside means any renewed hostilities would hit YES holders hard relative to the potential gain.
What to watch
Official statements from Israel or Hezbollah could lock in or destabilize the current calm. A statement from Netanyahu or an IDF update would give the clearest signal. Any resumption of sirens or cross-border fire would likely send the April 30 market sharply lower from its current 94%.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 96.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 97.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 89.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 7% | — | — | Trade → |
