Israel has deployed an Iron Dome system and IDF soldiers to the UAE during the ongoing conflict with Iran. The market for Iranian military action by April 30 sits at 100% YES, while the Gulf State military action against Iran market is priced at 3.4% YES.
The deployment signals direct military coordination between Israel and the UAE. The Iran military action by April 30 market is locked at 100%, with no variation across sub-markets. Traders treat Iranian action as a certainty.
The Gulf State market, by contrast, is priced at 3.4% YES, down from 4% a day ago. Even with an Iron Dome battery now stationed in the UAE, traders see little chance of Gulf states taking direct military action against Iran.
Trading volume in the Gulf State market is $683 in USDC over the past 24 hours, with $970 depth to move 5 points. The largest move was a 1-point spike, consistent with cautious positioning rather than aggressive bets.
The Iron Dome deployment represents a concrete expansion of Israel-UAE military ties, but the frozen 100% odds in the Iran market and the low Gulf State odds suggest traders are waiting for a specific Iranian response before repricing. At 3.4¢, a YES share in the Gulf State market pays $1 if military action occurs, a 29.4x return.
Watch for IRGC announcements or further missile tests. Any escalation in Iranian military rhetoric or action could move these odds quickly.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |
