The IRGC has ordered vessels to stay anchored in the Gulf, treating any movement as enemy cooperation. The market on fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 19 sits at 0.4% YES.
The April 13-19 transit market saw a minor uptick, but odds of fewer than 10 ships transiting remain at 0.4%. With one day left, the market still expects most shipping to continue despite the lockdown order. Trading volume is minimal at $57 USDC daily.
The market on UK warships entering the Strait by April 30 dropped to 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday. Traders are skeptical of a UK naval response even as IRGC aggression increases.
Liquidity in these markets is thin. The April 19 transit question trades just $14 USDC a day, making it vulnerable to sudden swings from individual trades. The warship market’s $1,412 daily volume shows stronger conviction but still allows for volatility, as a recent 2-point spike demonstrated.
The IRGC’s order comes as the ceasefire is set to expire imminently. Current prices suggest traders believe maritime movement will remain limited but not collapse below 10 ships. A YES share for under 10 ships transiting pays $1 at 0.4¢, a potential 250x return. That bet depends entirely on whether the IRGC can actually enforce a full lockdown.
Watch for IRGC enforcement actions and any U.S. or UK military responses. The Pentagon’s next briefing or unexpected ship movements could shift these odds fast.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
