A viral IRGC Navy transmission on Channel 16 declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, pending orders from Supreme Leader Khamenei. The likelihood of the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 sits at 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday.
Market reaction
The UK warships through the Strait market sits at 8.5% YES. The term structure is flat, meaning traders see no immediate catalyst for change within the next 12 days.
The market predicting fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait between April 13-19 remains at 0.4% YES. Traders are skeptical of a real drop in transit numbers even after the IRGC’s threat.
Actual USDC volume is modest: $1,412/day for UK warships and $14/day for ship transits. The warship market’s order book depth at $304 to move 5 points makes it vulnerable to manipulation by a few large trades. The largest price move was a 2-point spike at 4:25 PM, suggesting sporadic interest rather than sustained conviction.
Why it matters
The IRGC’s broadcast is a direct challenge to global maritime norms, but without concrete actions (UK or allied naval deployments, confirmed IRGC blockade enforcement) it’s more noise than signal. The 3.5-point drop from 12% to 8.5% shows traders read the transmission as reducing, not increasing, the chance of a UK naval response within the April 30 window.
What to watch
Watch @UKDefenceHQ for confirmed naval movements and CENTCOM for statements on maritime security in the region. Either would be the most direct catalyst for repricing. A YES share for the UK sending warships costs 8.5¢, with a potential 11.8x return, but that requires belief in imminent military action.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
