Iraq thanked Iran for allowing its tankers to navigate the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing conflicts. The US x Iran ceasefire by April 7 market sits at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Allowing Iraqi tankers through signals a slight de-escalation between Iran and Iraq, but ceasefire odds remain low. The April 7 ceasefire market dropped to 1% YES, showing deep pessimism. Odds for April 15 are at 6% YES, down from 8% yesterday. The April 30 market shows 18% YES, down from 24% a day ago.
The volume indicates cautious engagement. Combined face value trades at $3.7M daily, with $430K USDC changing hands. It takes $12K to shift the price by 5 points on April 7, making the market susceptible to large orders. The largest move was a 2-point spike in the April 30 market, suggesting traders are hedging against unexpected developments.
The safe passage of Iraqi tankers is a minor signal in a sea of uncertainty. Traders might see it as a potential thaw, but odds reflect skepticism. At 1¢, a YES share for April 7 offers a 100x payout if resolved, but belief in a near-term ceasefire is low. Dramatic changes would be needed in the next four days for these odds to make sense.
Watch intermediaries like Oman and Qatar for any movement towards talks. Statements from Secretary of State Rubio or CENTCOM updates could also influence these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
