Ebrahim Rezaei, head of Iran’s Parliament National Security Commission, called Trump’s nuclear and strategic claims “April lies.” The chance of a US-Iran ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 sits at 23% YES, up from 8% yesterday.
Traders moved fast after Rezaei’s statement. The April 21 ceasefire market spiked from 14% to 18% following the release, pricing in higher risk of a breach in the coming days. Meanwhile, Iran’s uranium enrichment agreement by April 30 dropped to 30.4% YES, down from 50% yesterday, a sharp move reflecting skepticism about any near-term deal.
The ceasefire market has $3,485 in USDC traded, with $498 in order book depth to move 5 points, moderate liquidity. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 3-point spike on the Rezaei news alone. The uranium market trades thicker at $34,430 daily USDC volume but showed more volatility, with a swift 4-point drop yesterday.
Rezaei’s dismissal makes de-escalation harder to price in. Both markets now reflect growing doubt that talks will produce results as Iranian rhetoric hardens. Buying YES shares at 23¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire breach is announced, a 5.56x return. That bet requires confidence that escalation continues over the next 3 days.
Watch for Trump’s response on social media and any further statements from Iranian leadership. Either could move these markets significantly before the April 21 deadline.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 23% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 30.4% | — | — | Trade → |
