Iran’s former foreign minister proposed limiting the nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% from 2% yesterday.
The market reflects skepticism. April 7 sits at 1% YES, April 15 at 6%, and April 30 at 18%. Odds for a ceasefire by May 31 rise to 36% YES, indicating traders expect a potential catalyst by then.
Trading volume is significant, with $431,402 in USDC daily. The order book for April 7 is thin, needing just $12,352 to shift the price by 5 points. A single large order could sway the market.
The proposal lacks official support, making it unlikely to influence traders. A YES share at 1¢ offers a 100x return if a ceasefire occurs by April 7, but without signs of imminent talks, it’s a gamble.
Watch for changes in rhetoric from Trump, Rubio, or intermediaries like Oman. Statements from CENTCOM or Iranian leaders could also impact market sentiment.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
