Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi is heading to Moscow following consultations in Islamabad, a move that coincides with the US-Iran ceasefire market pricing at 100.0% YES for the ceasefire breaking by April 21.
The trip to Moscow suggests Iran is turning toward Russia after the breakdown of US-Iran talks in Islamabad. The US-Iran ceasefire April 21 contract, priced at certainty, shows traders expect the ceasefire to collapse.
The Iranian oil sanction relief market sits at just 6% YES, down from 62% a week ago. This collapse in odds tracks with skepticism about Trump agreeing to sanction relief as tensions rise. Daily USDC volume was $1,944, and only $119 is needed to shift the odds by 5 points, meaning the market is thin enough for a single trade to move prices substantially.
Araghchi’s Moscow visit comes as the ceasefire’s expiration approaches. Russia has advocated for continued dialogue, so Iran’s consultation there could either strengthen its negotiating position or signal a harder line as US talks stall. For traders, the combination of a 100% ceasefire-break price and collapsing sanction relief odds leaves little room for optimism on any extension.
Watch for statements from Moscow or Tehran about the outcomes of Araghchi’s meetings. Specific Russian commitments or public comments on the US-Iran situation could shift market expectations on both the ceasefire and sanction relief contracts.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
